本报告为摩根大通全球市场策略团队2026年9月18日发布的G10外汇宏观交易建议。过去两周，在美联储偏鹰、全球收益率上行与能源价格上涨背景下，看多套息、看多美元的组合整体表现良好，但英国央行与日本央行的战术性表现不及预期形成拖累。因套息与增长的战略判断未变，团队维持全部交易仅作微调：看多澳元、挪威克朗、美元、英镑等高息货币，看空瑞郎、瑞典克朗、加元等低息货币。FOMC后继续持有美元兑低息货币的多头（兑瑞典克朗、加元，并收紧止损），理由是未来两周美元季节性走强（命中率87%、中位数涨幅0.7%）、9月非农往往超预期约10万人，且美元在各模型下仍显低估。看多英镑的逻辑为增长改善与套息优势，虽英国央行偏鹰程度不及预期，仍将融资端由欧元、瑞典克朗换成瑞郎与瑞典克朗以获取更高套息。加央行被视为"孤独的鸽派"，加元利率定价过于激进，故维持做空加元兑墨西哥比索与美元；
Our bullish-carry, bullish-USD portfolio overall fared well over the past fortnight on a hawkish Fed, rising global yields, and higher energy prices – but was set back by tactical disappointments from BoE and BoJ. We make no substantial changes, as broader strategic views on carry and growth are intact. Post-FOMC, we hold long USD vs low-yielders (SEK, CAD, CHF), supported by positive dollar seasonality (87% hit rate for next 2w), September payrolls beat trend, and cheap valuations across our models. We downplay domestic green shoots, rates momentum, and valuations, focusing on carry rankings: long AUD, NOK, USD, GBP; short CHF, SEK, CAD. G10 FX mispricings to fair value are justified by relative carry and we do not fade these. FX has been more sensitive to outright US yields than relative rate moves amid global rates repricing; US yields imply further SEK downside. CA rates repricing looks particularly excessive;