本周市场最大变化是美联储一致决定自2023年以来首次加息，经济预测摘要（SEP）更偏鹰派，中位数委员预计年内还将加息一次，并在2027年大部分时间维持利率不变，长期中性利率中位数升至3.25%，为2016年以来最高。会后短端收益率上行6个基点，曲线整体趋平8个基点，大部分变动发生在新闻发布会期间。作为长期美联储预期代理指标的1年期远期1年期OIS利率大幅上升，已超过2022-2023年加息周期高点，显示市场认同"更高更久"的政策路径。摩根大通美国国债策略团队据此上调年末收益率预测，将2年期美债目标上调40bp至4.7%、10年期目标上调20bp至5.05%。利率衍生品团队指出，近期与中期美联储预期上升解释了曲线趋平的大部分原因，建议以对冲美联储预期波动的方式交易曲线：建立2年期远期2s/10s陡峭化头寸，并搭配70%风险权重的1年期远期2s/10s趋平头寸，该组合同时具备相对价值。
In the biggest development in markets this week, the Fed unanimously delivered its highly anticipated first hike since 2023. The SEP now skews more hawkishly, with the median participant projecting one more hike this year and on hold throughout most of 2027. Yields responded to the press conference, with the front end selling off 6bp and broad curve flattening 8bp. Our proxy for long-run Fed expectations, 1Yx1Y OIS, also rose sharply and is exceeding levels last seen in the '22-'23 hiking cycle. Our UST strategists raised their year-end yield forecasts, in part due to the FOMC's view that growth risk is now skewed to the upside. The increase in near-term and medium-term Fed expectations has explained the majority of the flattening over the past month, and given the recent volatility in Fed expectations, we recommend trading the yield curve in a manner that is hedged for these factors. Initiate 2Y forward 2s/10s steepeners paired with 70% risk-weighted 1Y forward 2s/10s flatteners, whic