摩根大通于2026年11月11日发布中国金融行业报告，汇总与11家中国金融机构在2026年三季报后举行的线上交流会核心要点。整体判断对银行偏正面，其中国有大型银行更为受益，对券商则持中性看法。银行管理层承认净息差面临温和压力、营收增速放缓，但普遍预计利润增长保持稳定，部分银行表示零售资产质量压力有所缓解。值得注意的积极信号是，一家国有大行已将提升ROE纳入五年规划与管理层考核指标。国有行中，交通银行的表态最为积极，邮储银行对盈利展望相对谨慎。银行预计2027年净息差同比降幅仍将控制在个位数基点区间；贷款增长或因更注重质量而非规模而小幅放缓，企业贷款仍是主要驱动力；手续费收入前景好于预期，财富管理相关收入成为关键增长点；2026年权益投资浮盈（包括长鑫存储相关估值收益）抬高基数，令2026年四季度及2027年盈利波动加大；各家银行对零售资产质量的看法出现分化。
J.P. Morgan hosted post-3Q26 results webinars with 11 China financial companies. The overall takeaways were net positive for banks, particularly SOE banks, and neutral for brokers. Banks acknowledged moderate NIM headwinds and slower revenue growth, but generally expect profit growth to remain stable, with some noting easing pressure on retail asset quality. One SOE bank said improving ROE has been incorporated into its five-year plan and management KPIs. Among SOE banks, BoCom sounded the most constructive while PSBC was more cautious on its earnings outlook. Managements expect NIM headwinds to increase moderately in 2027, with the y/y decline likely within a single-digit basis point range. Loan growth could moderate in 2027 as banks focus increasingly on quality rather than scale, with corporate lending remaining the key driver. Fee growth outlook was better than expected, led by wealth-related fees. Strong 2026 investment income, including equity valuation gains related to CXMT, cre