第一量子矿业：2026年三季度业绩回顾——2026年产量指引小幅下调，2027年产量面临风险，维持中性评级

We update our First Quantum forecasts following Q3'26 earnings. Although Q3'26 EBITDA was +19% vs JPMe and +23% vs Bloomberg consensus, 2026 guidance was worse than expected with copper output guidance ranges downgraded as management expects lower Kansanshi sulphide grades given delayed stripping at South East Dome. C1 costs were updated to reflect the previously flagged energy and FX upside risk and total capex guidance was increased +3% vs previous. On Cobre Panama, although the Commission's recommendation indicated a path forward for restarting the mine, management suggested the government is currently focused on earthquake relief efforts, and reiterated that 6-9 months would be needed to restart the mine (to ~85Mtpa capacity). We downgrade our 2026/27E copper output forecast to 419kt (prev 437kt) and 521kt (prev 576kt), and revise 2026/27E EBITDA by -1%/-9%, which sits -4%/-19% vs Bloomberg consensus. Our Dec-27 price target is revised to C$44.00/sh (C$47.00/sh prev). FQM trades on