US eCommerce: Tricks, treats, Q3 eComm beats?

US eCommerce names kick off their 3Q26 earnings cycle this week, and despite the Muse/agentic narrative shaking up the space, eCommerce stocks have continued to perform well. We forecast US eCommerce industry growth of ~8% in 3Q26 (8.4% standalone), weighed down by the shift in the Prime Day calendar; combined 2Q26 and 3Q26 growth is ~10.4%, implying ~10% YTD growth. European eCommerce grew MSD to HSD, relatively stable. Investor expectations for 3Q26 feel relatively high across the group. On Amazon, a strong beat and raise last quarter was followed by intra-quarter fade on advertising profit pool risk from agentic and insider selling;