本报告为摩根大通亚太信用研究团队对亚洲TMT板块信用利差的跟踪分析。报告指出，近期围绕云与AI融资的负面消息（相关公司上市后股价大跌、算力供应商收益率飙升、Anthropic与OpenAI下调融资估值、腾讯半年内第二次发债、NextDC墨尔本数据中心事故等）引发股债市场抛售，科斯皮与纳斯达克指数明显回落，并带动亚洲与美国TMT信用利差走阔。其中亚洲TMT的走阔主要集中在中国超大规模云厂商（阿里、腾讯）曲线的中长端，前端相对抗跌，反映中资银行的技术性支撑弱于预期；SK海力士受美国交叉投资者抛售影响走阔，台积电除五年期外影响较轻，长端因台湾本地寿险持有强劲而收窄；对其他中国投资级主体的外溢有限，中国国企及金融板块走阔幅度较小。美国TMT利差走阔主要由高收益AI风险而非供给驱动，且向更广泛市场的传导有限。
Market concerns on neocloud/AI financing have led to a selloff across the equity and credit markets recently. For Asia TMT, most of the widening is observed in the 10-15 year part of the Chinese hyperscaler curves due to Tencent's recent bond issue, and BABA/TENCENT's valuation premium vs US hyperscalers has narrowed after the selloff. US TMT's recent widening is driven by HY AI risk instead of supply, with limited spillover to the broader market. Asia DC bond issuance has been delayed due to market volatility, and while capital remains available, investors will likely demand higher returns and stronger protection after the NextDC incident. We turned negative on Asia TMT in early Sept and maintain our cautious view, as spreads may remain pressured by Chinese hyperscalers' supply overhang, potential repricing from Asia DC bond issuance, AI financing concerns and weaker support from Chinese banks. We remain cautious on Chinese hyperscalers and SK hynix, and are Neutral on TSMC due to str