AI compute and capex through the lens of an AIDC expert

We hosted Mr Hu, Vice President at Centrin Data Systems. China AIDC buildout is accelerating: annual incremental capacity is expected to rise from c2GW in 2024 to over 3GW in 2025 and over 5GW each year for 2026 and 2027, taking total installed capacity to 25-30GW by end-2026. Supply growth significantly lags demand, with 1Q26 demand growth of 417% y-o-y versus 128% effective supply growth; key constraints are GPU and HBM shortages, domestic chip performance and production bottlenecks, and local grid capacity distribution. The expert expects the shortage to be alleviated into 2028 as domestic chips close the inference and training gaps. 1GW of infrastructure capex is estimated at cRMB20bn, and total capex reaches RMB160-210bn including IT equipment; US infrastructure costs are c4x higher than China, and c2x higher including IT equipment. Domestic chips made up 60% of 1H26 China shipments versus 40% in 2025, with T-Head a promising contender.