Strategy Inc (MSTR.O): Bitcoin Reversal; Raising TP to $240, Maintain Buy/HR

Citi resets its estimates and target price for Strategy Inc (MSTR.O) to incorporate Citi's revised 12-month BTC forecast (base case revised 39% higher to ~$113.4k). The revised $240 target price (prior: $136) assumes ~34% upside contribution from a higher Bitcoin price over the next 12 months and ~16% upside contribution from mNAV expansion from current levels. FY'27 Adj. Bitcoin Yield estimate improves ~190bps to ~5.9% following downward-revised FY'26 Adj. BTC Yield of -3.3%, resulting from the company's cash reserve build and BTC sales in 3Q'26. The Bitcoin Yield Multiple is raised from 2.5x to 4.0x, resulting in a revised mNAV assumption of 1.24x vs. 1.065x previously. The report also examines whether demand for STRC preferreds is self-sustaining after repurchasing more than 11.7M shares (~11% of share count) for over $1.1bn, and whether Strategy's growing Bitcoin position is shifting the asset from distributed ownership toward concentrated stewardship. Citi rates MSTR Buy/High Risk