Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate: TWA #41/2026: Not Stepping In, Despite Valuation Support

Morgan Stanley's TWA #41/2026 on Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate. Macau: cheap valuation and strong Golden Week visitation are not enough to turn positive — Oct GW arrivals rose 1.1% YoY and hotel occupancy improved 3ppt, but ADR fell 1.7% YoY, pointing to softer per-capita spend and flattish Oct GGR. 3Q industry GGR fell 1% QoQ (-4% YoY) with sticky costs; we see 3Q EBITDA below consensus and further negative revisions, with ~5% downside to consensus estimates (8% hold-adjusted). HK Property: JLL 3Q26 showed office rents +2.4% QoQ (Central +4.8%, YTD +12.4%), Grade A capital values +2% QoQ, and prime retail rents -0.9% QoQ/-3.5% YoY; we prefer landlords over developers and expect retail rent declines to narrow through 2027. India Property: a weak 2QF27 with LTM pre-sales -12% YoY, leaving 61% of FY27 targets for 2H;