恩捷股份（002812.SZ）：3Q26表现强劲，2027年销量指引上调

Yunnan Energy reported 9M26 net profit at Rmb1,794mn, up 2178.8%, in line with preliminary guidance. Implied 3Q26 net profit at Rmb974mn, up 14245% YoY and up 74% QoQ. Net profit excluding one-offs reached Rmb1,825mn in 9M26, up 2264% YoY, and Rmb976mn in 3Q26, up 9497% YoY and up 75% QoQ. 3Q26 GP at Rmb1,980mn, up 236% YoY and up 36% QoQ, with GP margin at 36%, +5.2ppt QoQ and +20.3ppt YoY; unit ASP rose 9% QoQ and sales volume reached 4.5bn sqm, up 41% YoY and up 7% QoQ, with the margin expansion attributable to full capacity utilization and price hikes. Management raised FY27 sales volume guidance to 22bn sqm from 20bn sqm, implying 31% YoY growth, and targets ~4.5bn sqm in 4Q, implying full-year volume of 16.75bn sqm versus prior guidance of 16bn sqm. 3Q26 net gearing was 44% vs 45% in 2Q26; 9M26 OCF was Rmb2,042mn (+133% YoY) and, with capex of Rmb1.2bn, FCF turned positive at Rmb845mn versus an outflow of Rmb156mn in 9M25. The stock trades at 13.8x 2027E P/E;