本报告为野村于10月14日举办的抖音电商专家电话会纪要。专家称，抖音电商三季度增速明显放缓，主要反映消费环境疲弱及中国电商行业整体降速，公司已下调全年GMV目标。报告认为，尽管增速放缓令人失望，但抖音更注重盈利、收紧补贴投放、把GMV质量与商家生态置于份额争夺之上，有助于行业竞争环境趋于理性，并支撑主要电商平台的利润率，也与该行对阿里传统电商利润率保持韧性的判断一致。由此产生两点推论：今年双11销售表现可能相对平淡；销售走弱或使平台与品牌在传统营销旺季更谨慎地投放广告，从而给中国在线广告行业带来压力。此外，专家指出字节跳动正通过豆包与红果探索新增长点：豆包的长期机会在于AI驱动的对话式购物，可简化搜索、比较与购买流程，但仍处早期，受推荐准确度、模型幻觉、响应时延等制约；红果已跑通站内电商链路，短剧带货GMV基数小但增长快。
On 14 October, we hosted a conference call with a Douyin ecommerce expert to discuss recent ecommerce trends, competitive dynamics and emerging opportunities from AI and new traffic channels. According to the expert, Douyin's ecommerce growth slowed significantly in 3Q26, broadly reflecting the challenging consumption environment and slowing growth across China's ecommerce sector, and Douyin has lowered its 2026 GMV target. While the growth slowdown is not encouraging, we view its increased focus on profitability as a positive development for the broader ecommerce industry: Douyin has become more disciplined in subsidy spending, with management increasingly prioritising profitability, GMV quality and merchant economics over aggressive market share gains, which could contribute to a more stable competitive environment and help support margins across major ecommerce platforms. This is consistent with our expectation that Alibaba's traditional ecommerce profitability will remain resilient