North America Oil & Gas Refiners and Marketers: Refining Stocks Pull Back on Growing Support for Potential Export Ban

Calls for restrictions on diesel exports appear intensifying (WSJ, Sep 21, 2026) as retail prices spiked to more than $6.50/gal. While potential export restrictions have been in focus for several weeks, senior figures including Senator John Thune recently commented on a potential ban. While there're multiple potential policy options, if a complete ban on diesel exports were enacted, we estimate it would take roughly two months for current distillate inventories to reach historical peak levels, all else equal. However, refineries would likely reduce throughput in response to sharply lower margins, which would have a cascading impact on the prices of gasoline and jet. Gulf Coast refiners appear most exposed, having ramped their distillate yields. If a complete ban on exports were enacted, this would likely spell the end to historical run in refining margins and share prices. Two bills were proposed last week by Representative Tim Burchett: the first would impose an outright ban on US die