德意志银行信用策略团队发布投资级（IG）与高收益（HY）债策略报告。尽管客户关注超大规模云计算商发债、主权收益率上升、油价破百、欧美央行加息及2027年法国大选风险，信用利差波动仍有限：美元IG利差78bp年内持平，美元HY 265bp收窄1bp；欧元IG与HY分别为82bp与272bp，年内走阔4bp与7bp。团队认为超算商发债并非近期利差走阔的催化剂，IG需求旺盛且再杠杆迹象有限；真正担忧的是信用收益率以2022年以来最快速度上行，收紧最杠杆借款人的融资条件。加息将进一步暴露经济中的"冰冷"部分：美国衰退风险低于10%但呈K型分化，欧洲增长与信用基本面更弱。目标价：美元IG公允价值利差85bp（+7bp）、美元HY 315bp（+50bp）；欧元IG 95bp（+13bp）、欧元HY 345bp（+73bp）。美国投机级违约率年内由4.3%降至4.0%，欧洲维持4.5%。
It has been a busy summer for the DB Credit Strategy team, yet aggregate spread volatility has largely been absent: $IG spreads of 78bps are unchanged YTD and $HY at 265bps are 1bp tighter, while €IG at 82bps and €HY at 272bps are only 4bps and 7bps wider. Client questions keep multiplying around hyperscaler issuance, rising sovereign yields, $100+ oil prices, ECB & Fed hikes and 2027 French election risks. We are not overly concerned with hyperscaler issuance as a near-term catalyst for wider spreads, given rampant $IG demand and limited signs of broader re-leveraging outside hyperscalers. What does concern us is that credit yields are rising at the fastest pace since 2022, tightening financial conditions for the most leveraged borrowers. The ECB has hiked twice with a third likely, and the Fed is set to hike, against above-target inflation, AI capex capacity constraints and rising commodity prices from Middle East tensions. Rate hikes do not imply a policy error, with US recession ri