据路透社消息，中欧于10月9日达成初步协议与谅解，中国将在未来4年内力争把对欧盟的HEV/PHEV出口减半，欧盟则继续获得稀土等关键材料的供应。该政策提案将于10月15-16日欧洲理事会峰会上讨论并敲定。我们认为这是积极进展，降低了全面贸易战的可能性：10月9日的初步协议实质上将欧盟对中国PHEV的政策从此前的TRQ（关税配额）转向双边VER（自愿出口限制），并将HEV纳入范围。协议将确定2027年起年度减量目标的度量方式，以及建立最低进口价格（MIP）机制以抑制中国车企的价格竞争。受影响最大的将是当前对欧PHEV/HEV敞口较高的中国车企，其中比亚迪对欧敞口最高（约占其总出口30-40%），其次为奇瑞（约25%）和上汽。
According to Reuters, EU and China reached a preliminary agreement and understanding on Oct 9, where China will aim to halve its HEV/PHEV exports to the EU over the next 4 years while the EU shall continue to have access to critical materials such as rare earths from China. The EU will discuss and finalize this policy proposal at the European Council summit on Oct 15-16. We welcome this positive development as it lowers the possibility of a full-blown trade war. The preliminary agreement effectively shifted the EU's policy on China PHEVs from the previous TRQ (tariff-rate quota) to bilateral VER (voluntary export restraint), and HEVs will now be in scope. The EU will decide on the annual volume reduction target from 2027 and a MIP (minimum import price) mechanism to curb price competition from Chinese OEMs. Chinese OEMs with high PHEV/HEV exposure to the EU will be the most affected, with BYD having the highest exposure (~30-40% of total exports), followed by Chery Auto (~25%) and SAIC