Inventory structure and balance sheet depth differentiate ROE recovery path; ASP key to upside; Buy COLI, CRL, Jinmao, upgrade CMSK to Buy

We expect sales model reforms to slow ROE recovery across the housing sector. Our analysis of inventory, city exposure, and balance sheet suggests that companies with higher saleable resources, longer duration of land reserves, higher exposure to higher-tier cities, and lower leverage/debt repayment pressures, notably COLI and CRL, are best positioned to adapt, while Seazen and Vanke face higher risks.

We believe ASP trends are now the key driver of ROE and reinvestment scale under deleveraging constraints. A move to a 20% project net margin (vs. our assumed 10%) could meaningfully boost recovery;