CHINA PROPERTY: 2027 Outlook: Four Key Pivot Points Driving a New Equilibrium Towards 2035

We expect four pivot points for China's housing market on the path to 2035E, based on the new sales model introduced on Aug 28, our bottom-up analysis of inventory progress, and refreshed structural demand forecasts. On supply, we expect saleable primary-market projects to fall sharply in 2028E, land sales to accelerate their decline from 2031E, and new starts and property FAI to trough and turn around in 2032E. On demand, structural housing demand (necessary plus upgrading) should decline faster from 2030E as urbanization and homeownership saturate, while demolition needs pick up after 2032E and stabilize overall demand at about 0.8bn sqm. Our sample of 18 cities shows roughly one-third of unsold inventory is "stuck", with nationwide unsold residential inventory of about GFA6.5bn sqm and Rmb44tn saleable value at end-2026E;