Sep TSF: Corporate credit rebounds, but broader loan growth remains soft

In September 2026, new TSF and Rmb loans to the real economy amounted to Rmb 3.55tn and Rmb 1.27tn, respectively, versus Rmb 3.53tn and Rmb 1.61tn in September 2025. Outstanding TSF growth moderated to 7.1% YoY from 7.2% in August, while Rmb loan growth slowed further to 4.8% from 5.0%. In 9M26, cumulative new TSF and Rmb loans to the real economy reached Rmb 27.46tn and Rmb 11.50tn, down 8.7% and 20.9% YoY, respectively. M2 growth moderated to 7.2% YoY at end-September. September credit issuance recovered seasonally, led by corporate lending, while household demand remained subdued and system loan growth slowed further to 4.8% YoY. This is broadly consistent with our view that structural policy support should provide a modest tailwind to corporate credit demand, but is unlikely to drive a broad-based recovery in system loan growth. For banks, the continued moderation in loan growth suggests asset growth and yields remain areas to monitor, while slower balance-sheet expansion should su