3Q26 Business Services & Insurance Broker Preview - Living in an Agentic World

The business services space continues to be dominated by the AI disruption narrative, yet only FDS benefited from the reversal in software share price performance in 3Q26: software stocks rose 18% and FDS gained 17%, while SPGI and MCO were flat (interest rate headwinds to Ratings) and MSCI and VRSK declined mid-single digits. Key focal points into 3Q26 results include softer Ratings revenues at SPGI and MCO, where higher interest rates have weighed on issuance and could persist into 2027; flat 3Q transactional revenues and elevated rates probably imply some downside to 2026 Ratings outlooks (SPGI at 5-8%, MCO at high-single digits). While AI disruption remains front of mind, FDS has started to see partly AI-driven revenue tailwinds by embedding more content into MCPs faster than peers, creating agentic workflow stickiness and cross-sell opportunities, whereas MCO's MA, SPGI's MI, VRSK and MSCI are unlikely to see much AI-related subscription acceleration but are focused on AI agents a