UBS Evidence Lab: Semis Distributor Tracker – the cycle continues

UBS Evidence Lab presents data from the 24th edition of the UBS Evidence Lab Enhanced Semis Distributor Tracker, which tracks inventory and pricing trends at 100+ distinct distributors globally. Inventory decreased 3% m-o-m (vs. +4% last month), primarily driven by sharp inventory depletion of diodes, down 17% (up 40% last month), with other key product categories averaging a LSD% m-o-m decline. As expected given company announcements, pricing continues to tick up, increasing a further 1% m-o-m (+2% last month), now up 16% y-o-y on average, with all categories up L/MSD% m-o-m, except MCU pricing decreasing 1%. The data continues to read positively from a cycle standpoint on both pricing and inventory, and we see a rising possibility that channel inventory will require filling in H2'26. Our preferred exposures to this dynamic remain Texas Instruments and STMicro. Key takeaways: 1) MCU prices have decreased 1% but remain up 5% y-o-y, the lowest increase of all product categories, and giv