Citi's Inference Ahead - Google Raises the Intelligence Ceiling

Gemini 4 Carbon ranked first on the AA Intelligence Index at 59 after its Wednesday release, a spot Google last held with Gemini 3.1 Pro in February. Carbon also lifted the proprietary gap over open models to 27 points, the widest lead since June. While Gemini releases typically launch broadly and compete on efficiency, Carbon is currently available only to cyber defenders, so its immediate commercial impact may be limited. On AA's per-task measures, Carbon uses 2.4x as many output tokens as GPT-6 Astra but costs only 24% more at AA's listed pricing. Memory backlogs continue to increase despite higher prices, with Micron's HBM4 12-hi pricing expected to more than double YoY;