伯恩斯坦发布宁德时代三季报前瞻。报告预计宁德时代3Q26营收同比增长45%至1510亿元人民币，净利润229亿元（同比+23%），总电池出货量230GWh（同比+39%），混合均价升至92.5美元/kWh，单位净利约14美元/kWh、环比提升4%。尽管中国电动车销量前8个月同比下降8%，宁德时代电池装机量仍同比增长25%，市场份额稳定在38%，储能电池出货同比大增66%-88%，显示需求动能依然强劲。报告认为股价自高点回调30%后，市场对份额流失和2027年储能放缓的担忧已使预期过度悲观，当前10倍远期市盈率隐含"零增长"假设，与基本面背离。维持A股与H股"跑赢大市"评级，但基于更保守的利润率假设下调2026/2027年EPS预测3.9%/8.9%，A股目标价由800元下调至770元，H股由770港元下调至740港元。
CATL 3Q26 results are on 20th October. With the stock down 30% since its peak there is a growing disconnect between expectations and recent performance. While we expect 45% revenue growth, positive guidance could be critical to allaying some of the fears around demand growth and market share. We expect CATL's 3Q26 revenue to grow 45% y-o-y to RMB151bn with net income of RMB22.9bn (+23% y-o-y). Despite a slowdown in China's EV sales (-8% y-o-y in 8M26), CATL's battery installation rose 25% y-o-y in the same period, with market share resilient at 38%, and ESS shipment increased 88% y-o-y in 8M26. We expect total battery sales volume to grow by 39% y-o-y in 3Q26 and unit net profit to hold steady at around US$14/kWh. We maintain Outperform rating but lower CATL(H) PT from HKD770 to HKD740 and CATL(A) PT from RMB800 to RMB770, having revised down 2026/2027 EPS estimates by 3.9%/8.9% on a more conservative margin outlook. CATL buybacks totaled RMB3.3bn in September and could be expanded;