USA: FOMC Minutes Note "Most" Participants Saw Another Increase as Likely "Appropriate by Year End," but Committee Will Approach

BOTTOM LINE: The minutes to the FOMC's September meeting showed that "all" participants supported raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75-4%, judging that progress on lowering inflation had not been "sufficient." "Almost all" participants assessed that risks to inflation were "tilted to the upside," while risks to the labor market had "diminished" and were now "broadly balanced." "Many" participants framed the hike as "prudent on risk-management grounds" against inflation remaining "persistently above target," while "a number" viewed it as "necessary under their modal outlook rather than for risk-management reasons." "Most" participants assessed that another increase would likely be "appropriate by year end," though they stressed the Committee would approach each meeting with "an open mind," as future decisions "would depend on incoming information." Following the August core PCE data and recent speeches by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President