金沙中国(1928)：下调盈利预测与目标价，股息收益率支撑维持增持评级

Updating our Sands China model. We update our model to reflect a weak 3Q26 print, but the more important change is the deterioration in industry demand in recent months. We cut FY26E/27E revenue by 2%/9% and adjusted EBITDA by 4%/14%, with negative operating leverage amplifying the earnings impact. Our Jun-27 price target falls to HK$14.5 from HK$17.5; the SOTP implies 11x FY26E EV/EBITDA, against 15-16x at historical mid-cycle levels. We forecast industry GGR at -7% y/y in 4Q26E, -4% in 1H27E and +1% in 2H27E, leaving FY27E down 2% - more than 5% below current Street expectations, pointing to further earnings-cut risk across the sector. We stay OW on Sands purely on yield support: its progressive DPS policy should support HK$1.0 p.a. despite the earnings cuts, implying a yield of over 9%, against our cautious sector stance.