Global Investment Banks: Read-across from US banks' comments on 3Q IB performance - room for potential upgrades

US Banks (BofA, Citi and JPMC) this week commented on Markets and IB fee trends so far in 3Q, with YoY guidance for Markets (FICC+Equities Sales & Trading) revenue ranging from relatively flat (BofA) to up mid-single-digit % (Citi) to up mid-to-high teens % (JPMC). We forecast 3Q markets revenues +10% YoY for Global IBs in our coverage, with US +18% on average and Europe +2% on average. September is usually the make or break month for IB revenues in 3Q, so we see current management guidance as likely building in an element of conservatism with upside surprise potential when banks report 3Q earnings. We expect Equities YoY outperformance to continue in 3Q (+21% YoY in USD), despite some normalization (-27% QoQ) from a record 2Q, while FICC revenues are forecast flat YoY and down 13% QoQ. IB Fees 3QTD, based on Dealogic data, track -9% YoY with ECM +14%, DCM -12% and M&A revenues -15% YoY. We maintain our positive view on IBs, with 3Q IB fees +7% YoY and FY26 +23% YoY for Global IBs in o