Airlines: Read-through from US mainline 3Q26 results/4Q26 guidance

We cannot draw a straight line between US airlines' operating performance and QAN/VGN given different market structures and largely distinct demand pools. That said, key themes from US mainline carrier results reflect strong revenue momentum accelerating into 3Q26, underpinned by fuel recapture, continued leisure demand growth and ongoing corporate recovery. All three carriers reported high-teens yoy revenue growth (+16% to +19%), with unit revenue up ~15%–16%; UAL recaptured ~72% of the fuel increase in 3Q26 and remains confident of ~100% recapture in FY27. Premiumisation continues, though the main cabin is closing the gap. For 4Q26, the three carriers guide to high-teens to low-20s % revenue growth on flat to mid-single-digit capacity growth, with all guiding better-than-expected RASM/revenue. We forecast QAN/VGN 1H27e TRASK growth of +10.5%/+8.6% and fuel recapture of ~84%/82%. We are Buy-rated on QAN (A$12.35 target, +47% upside) and VGN (A$3.90 target, +65% upside).