本报告梳理日本铁路票价调整的最新进展。1）东京地铁在10月30日业绩说明会上表示"力争于2029年3月实施票价调整"。若按完全成本法申请调价，基于历史规律等因素估算，最关键的调价申请（从股票投资角度看最重要的催化剂）可能于2028年秋季前后提交；若如此，2028财年指引或将显示营业利润下滑，短期内股价反弹的催化剂有限。2）2026年10月16日，国土交通省（MLIT）正式公布2026财年标准成本/基准成本。3）随着标准成本正式公布，京成电铁最早可能在2026年底前宣布提交调价申请的可能性上升。4）西日本旅客铁道方面，假设其调价时间表与东京地铁大致相同，部分投资者预期2026年内提交申请。行业观点为"与大市同步"。
Here we review the latest developments surrounding railway fare revisions. 1) Tokyo Metro said at its Oct 30 results briefing that it "aims to implement a fare revision in March 2029." If it seeks a fare revision under the fully distributed cost methodology, we estimate, based on past patterns and other factors, that the application for a fare revision (the most important event from an equity investment perspective) could be submitted around fall 2028. If so, we believe F3/28 guidance would likely call for an OP decline, leaving few catalysts for a share price rebound in the near term. 2) On Oct 16, 2026, MLIT officially announced F3/26 standard/benchmark costs. 3) Following the official announcement of these standard/benchmark costs, we believe Keisei Electric Railway is increasingly likely to announce the submission of a fare revision application as early as by year-end 2026. 4) West Japan Railway: Regarding a railway fare revision, we assume roughly the same timeline as for Tokyo Me