源杰科技（688498.SH）：基本面强劲叠加主动扩产，但政策风险仍是最大悬顶之压

Nomura's results review on Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology (688498.SS) notes 3Q26 revenue and earnings grew strongly year on year, driven by buoyant datacom optical chip demand and market share gains at optical transceiver customers, while gross margin improved markedly on better product mix, higher yield and utilization rates. As a key supplier of continuous-wave (CW) lasers, the company should continue to benefit from 800G/1.6T transceiver demand, and its 100G EML chip could become an emerging growth driver. The company is proactively expanding CW and EML capacity to capture surging orders and may become an early mover in the NPO market. Nomura raises its FY26-28 revenue and earnings forecasts, but maintains a Neutral rating and cuts its target price, as geopolitical and policy risk remains the biggest overhang despite strong fundamentals. Downside risks include weaker optical transceiver demand, slower NPO/CPO penetration, top-customer supply chain diversification and geopolitics;