Semiconductors: Weekly: SPE Earnings Thoughts & August SIA

SPE likely to show significant strength around these prints. Separately, August SIA was stronger than expected overall, with broad markets softer than expected and memory still supported by tight supply and resilient pricing. The industry is blowing past both demand (cleanroom) and supply (supply chain) constraints. We expect beats and raises across the majority of our U.S. SPE coverage and see the industry surpassing a $200bn WFE run rate in the DecQ (+63% y/y). We see upside to our 39% 2026 WFE growth forecast. The biggest driver of the 2H acceleration will be DRAM, where fab tooling for projects including Micron ID1 and Hynix Yongin has been pulled forward. Overall SIA data for August were stronger than expected, as strength in memory more than offset softness in broad markets. Sales were up 23.3% m/m, above our estimate of +18.1% and above the 10-yr average change of +8.6%, with 3-month y/y growth accelerating to 146.1%. DRAM 3-month y/y sales reached 403.8%, a new historical high,