Muted Golden Week build in steel distributor inventories in China

After the build and draw down during the CNY, inventories in China then go sideways till a small increase during the golden week holiday in early October and then continue to draw down till 7-8 weeks before the next CNY. This year has broadly followed that pattern except that steel inventories during 3Q'26 went up 4% (compared to the average 3Q drawdown of 3%). Inventories rose 3% during the golden week holiday, compared to an average of 7% during the previous decade. This leaves inventories 2% higher y/y, but at post-pandemic average levels for this time of the year. Inventories peaked at 15.4mn tonnes in '26, 5% higher y/y, 25% lower than the 10-year average peak, and the third lowest peak in 15 years. A normal winter drawdown should see distributor inventories below 8mn tonnes by mid-December. Chinese New Year in 2027 falls on the 6th of Feb so inventories should trough 7-8 weeks before that.