瑞银美国经济研究团队认为，2026年中期选举的影响可能超出财政范畴，同时重塑货币政策格局。最新民调显示民主党有望扩大对国会的控制：若赢得众议院，财政僵局与债务上限博弈将更易出现；若进一步掌控参议院，则将影响美联储理事的提名确认程序，进而改变理事会人员构成与FOMC的反应函数。报告还梳理了财政截止日期与债务上限谈判的潜在路径，以及医保、住房金融、能源与基础设施、科技监管（人工智能监管、半导体出口管制、儿童在线保护）等可能跨党派推进的议题。核心结论是：选举不仅会改变财政支持的规模与结构，还可能通过参议院对美联储人事的确认权，为货币政策带来被市场低估的制度性风险，市场对美联储独立性的关注将上升。
Based on the most recent polling, the midterm elections are likely to increase Democratic control of Congress. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats, and the incumbent president's party has lost an average of 24 seats over the past 20 midterm cycles. A Democratic House would make gridlock and fiscal brinkmanship more likely; a Democratic sweep could also affect monetary policy through increased control of the Senate confirmation process, with as many as four current members of the Board of Governors potentially departing in 2027 or by early 2028. A blue sweep could constrain the administration's ability to secure confirmation of its preferred nominees, and greater Democratic influence over confirmations, alongside increased oversight, could in turn provide the FOMC with a degree of additional institutional insulation. The broader point is that the midterm outcome may have consequences extending beyond fiscal policy: changes in influence over the confirmation process could intr