Vidrala SA (VID.MC): Weaker Volume Growth Limit Growth Prospects In Near Term

Vidrala reaffirmed FY26 guidance despite a modest organic sales decline. EBITDA outlook of c€450m for FY26e implies EBITDA of €112m in 4Q26 which we believe is achievable on the back of a strong performance from the South America segment. We expect the UK and Ireland segment and Iberian and Rest of Europe segment to report sluggish volume. However, we expect EBITDA margin to remain firm at c30% in 4Q26 vs c29% in 4Q25. Going forward, end-markets such as beer, wine, spirits and food packaging remain below historical growth rates, but improving consumption trends, customer destocking normalization and tighter industry capacity should support a gradual recovery in furnace utilization in the medium term. We build in a moderate volume from FY27e onwards. We increase our TP to €95 (from €90.48) driven by a MSD increase in our bottom-line estimates over the medium-term. Maintain Neutral.