Novartis (NOVN.S) Takeaways from our Multiple Sclerosis KOL call following remibrutinib data presentation at MSToronto 2026

Following Novartis' presentation of remibrutinib REMODEL-1/2 data at MSToronto 2026, Goldman Sachs hosted a KOL call. The KOLs viewed the BTKi class as having moderate efficacy, with Roche's fenebrutinib holding an efficacy edge while remibrutinib has a better safety profile. Initial uptake in RMS was seen at only 5-10% of patients versus 15-33% in progressive forms (PPMS/SPMS), with both experts willing to use BTKis off-label in PPMS/SPMS. The data missed the bar investors had indicated (ARR benefit >40% and 6-month CDP-EDSS of 34-45%), delivering 31-35% and 29.2% respectively, and the NVS ADR closed down 3.3%. Management guided to $8bn+ peak sales for remibrutinib ($4bn+ in RMS and $4bn+ in CSU/CIndu); GS forecasts a c.$7.5bn BTKi market in MS, with $4.5bn for fenebrutinib and $3bn for remibrutinib. GS maintains Sell with a 12-month price target of SFr113 (11.7% downside), viewing the c.12% YTD outperformance versus EU Pharma as unjustified.