本报告利用CPS微观数据构建新的劳动力供给估算，发现劳动力供给的恶化远比已公布的劳动力市场总量所显示的更为严重。分析纳入月度CPS报告未披露的公民身份、移民新近程度及非参与原因等信息。自2026年1月人口控制更新以来，劳动力供给明显走弱，恶化主要集中于非公民群体，但劳动力增长弱于人口增长，表明参与率亦在下降。人口老龄化与非公民人口占比收缩通过构成效应拖累参与率，同时退休、家庭照护等因素也在压低各人口组内的参与率。恶化速度可能放缓，但持续逆转不太可能，移民放缓、人口老龄化与超额退休属持久影响。对劳动力市场与美联储影响重大：若劳动力增长持续弱于此前估计，与失业率稳定相符的就业增长盈亏平衡点可能长期处于或低于零，从而使温和的就业增长也能维持劳动力市场紧张与工资压力。
Our analysis reveals a much sharper deterioration in labor supply than is apparent in published labor-market aggregates. Drawing on CPS microdata, we develop new estimates using citizenship, immigration recency and nonparticipation information that is unavailable in the monthly release. Labor supply has weakened materially since the January 2026 population-control update. The deterioration is concentrated among noncitizens, but labor-force growth has weakened by more than population growth, indicating that participation is also falling. Demographic and behavioral forces are contributing to the slowdown. Population aging and the shrinking noncitizen population share are weighing on participation through composition effects, while retirements, home and family care, and other categories are increasingly depressing participation within demographic groups. The pace of deterioration may moderate, but a sustained reversal seems unlikely. Slower immigration, population aging and excess retirem