9月中国官方制造业PMI由8月的49.8回升至50.1，符合预期（市场与野村预测分别为50.1和50.0）；非制造业PMI由49.0超预期升至50.2（市场及野村预期均为49.2）。野村认为PMI回升主要是季节性因素，而非经济实质性复苏，尤其内需仍然疲弱；而出口动能依旧强劲，调查更多出口企业的RatingDog制造业PMI由51.5升至52.1，高于预期。整体看三季度增长较二季度仅有限反弹，维持三季度实际GDP同比4.3%的低于市场预期（市场预期4.5%）的预测。当局推出新一轮定向宽松措施以降低融资成本并增加央行贷款投放，但野村认为影响有限，因措施规模较小或未能有效解决实际增长障碍，维持四季度实际GDP同比4.5%的预测。制造业PMI回升主要受生产指数推动（升至51.7），新订单与新出口订单小幅回落至50.5和50.0；价格指数显示9月PPI环比或升至0.5%。
The official manufacturing PMI rose as expected to 50.1 in September (Consensus: 50.1; Nomura: 50.0) from 49.8 in August, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased by more than expected to 50.2 in September (Consensus and Nomura: 49.2) from 49.0 in August. The higher PMIs were largely seasonal, rather than a sign of a real economic recovery, in our view, especially for domestic demand. By contrast, momentum in the export sector remains robust, as the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, which surveys more exporters, advanced to a stronger-than-expected 52.1 in September (Consensus and Nomura: 51.7) from 51.5 in August. Overall, we see a limited growth rebound in Q3 from Q2 and maintain our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 4.3% y-o-y for Q3 (Consensus: 4.5%). China's top economic and financial authorities unveiled a new package of targeted easing measures to lower financing costs and raise central bank lending. We expect a contained impact, as these policy measures are either of small sca