Mainland China/Hong Kong Property & Conglomerates: First look at Golden Week

The initial sales data for Mainland China residential during the National Day Golden Week looks encouraging: 26-city real-time secondary sales +59% Y/Y; 44-city visitations +16% Y/Y; primary subscription sales +15% Y/Y, driven by the mortgage subsidy policy effective on October 1. This is a knee-jerk reaction to the nationwide policy rollout and the real question is sustainability after 1-2 months; we would not be overly excited about short-lived policy-driven sales improvement and prefer organic improvement. Checks with leading SOE developers show a more mixed picture. On October 8, Chinese developers rose 1% (led by SOEs: COLI +4%, CRL +3%), while distressed high-beta policy proxies pulled back (Vanke-H and Sunac both -6%). Top picks remain CR Land, COLI and KE Holdings. For Mainland retail, key landlords saw 5-10% Y/Y same-store tenant sales growth;