Latin America Reference Presentation: The New Macro Map

J.P. Morgan's Latin America Reference Presentation argues that the region remains resilient at first glance, but divergence is deepening and outcomes are increasingly driven by country-specific fundamentals rather than common regional drivers. On growth, Brazil and Mexico show softer momentum, Chile is weaker than fundamentals suggest, Peru remains among the strongest, and Argentina benefits from improving confidence. On inflation, the easy phase of disinflation is over, with sticky core inflation and upside risks from El Niño. Monetary policy is no longer synchronized: BCB may continue its calibration in September, Banxico's easing has ended, BanRep is expected to hold at 12%, BCCh is expected to hike in 1Q27 and BCRP in October. Fiscal squeeze intensifies, with fiscal credibility the main medium-term differentiator;