绿的谐波 (688017.SH): Strong demand amid production and competition challenges; HOLD

We have spoken with Leaderdrive post the 1H26 results, and with a reducer expert in China and peers including Kedali and Laifual for channel checks. On the positive side, Leaderdrive is expanding its customer pipeline with inquiries from leading US and South Korean humanoid robotics manufacturers, one of whom (not Tesla) has already ordered tens of millions of RMB worth of reducers for delivery before the end of the year; the upcoming mass production of humanoid robots at XPeng also presents additional growth opportunities. On the negative side, the capacity ramp-up has weighed on near-term profitability, and competition is visibly intensifying as domestic reducer peers aggressively expand capacity, creating pricing pressure. We calculate that the combined annual reducer capacity of the four major Chinese players (Leaderdrive, Laifual, Kedali and Sling) stood at ~1.5mn units in 2025 and is set to increase to over 4mn units in 2026E and ~6.5mn units in 2027E. 2Q26 results disappointed a