Fervo Energy Company（FRVO.US）：验证的代价

Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating on Fervo Energy (FRVO.US) with a $47 price target, implying ~386% upside from the $9.68 close. Fervo's stock has declined ~64% from its IPO price despite achieving what may be the most significant commercial milestone among the 2026 clean-power IPO class: bringing the first Cape Station GeoBlock into contracted commercial operation, reaching 33 MW net output and beginning to generate PPA revenue. We attribute the disconnect to a more risk-averse backdrop for growth-oriented clean energy equities, a shift in investor preference toward near-term cash flow visibility, skepticism toward Enhanced Geothermal Systems given limited operating history, and a broader rotation in which traditional energy outperformed clean energy in 2026 as natural gas emerged as the primary fuel for data-center demand. At $2.85 billion of market cap, the market is pricing in 500 MW at Cape Station at $5,500/kW and giving little credit for the cost curve or the pipeline. Ke