China Basic Materials — September 26 NBS data: Diverging sector signals

China's September NBS data softened further, led by continued weakness in property and FAI, reinforcing concerns over domestic commodity demand. New starts fell 26% YoY, completions -37% YoY and real estate development investment -27% YoY, while total FAI dropped 10% YoY (manufacturing -1%, infrastructure -11%). Sector signals diverged: September aluminium output reached 3.91mt (+3.1% YoY) with exports up 27% YoY, keeping supply elevated and skewing aluminium price risk to the downside; raw coal output fell 7% YoY and imports 6% YoY, with slow supply release supporting prices (QHD 5,500kcal above Rmb1,000/t); crude steel output was 74mt, flat YoY, with only ~8% of mills profitable as rising coking coal prices squeeze margins;