Circle Q3: Code is cheap, liquidity isn't. Now perhaps buy more payments distribution

Circle Q3 revenue beat estimates by 11% at $865Mn and EPS of $0.89 came in 2.4x consensus of $0.37. Adjusted EBITDA of $317Mn beat consensus by 56%, attributable to recognition of $182Mn of ARC Token presale revenue following Arc's public mainnet launch on September 16. Stripping out Arc, the underlying picture is softer: other revenue ex-Arc was $25Mn, down 26% QoQ, RLDC margin ex-Arc was 39.7%, down 150bps QoQ, and adj. EBITDA margin ex-Arc was 50% versus 70% reported. USDC ended Q3 at $73.9Bn, flat YoY and up 1% QoQ, with average circulation of $73.3Bn, up 8% YoY, and stablecoin market share flat at 27% QoQ. On-platform USDC rose 36% YoY to $13.9Bn, or 19% of circulation. USDC transaction volume stood at about $14Tn, up 49% YoY, accounting for 79% of total stablecoin volumes versus 66% in 3Q2025, while primary market liquidity set a record at $208Bn minted and redeemed, or about $2.3Bn per day, underscoring that liquidity infrastructure is the hardest part of the moat to replicate.