五粮液-A：渠道去库存加深，股东回报不足以抵消盈利风险

WLY's 3Q revenue momentum slowed sharply (-38% YoY, vs. 2Q's -13%) and net profit fell 48% on sales deleveraging. While distribution prices have stabilized from the lows, they remain far from a sustainable recovery. End-demand visibility is still limited, as weak macro and tighter regulatory scrutiny in some regions continue to weigh on business-related consumption. We expect channel destocking and elevated marketing support to persist over the next few quarters. We forecast FY26 sales/earnings of RMB40B/RMB10.8B, implying a 4Q26 decline of 28%/58% and ~25% downside risk to consensus FY26 net profit. We attribute the stock's recent outperformance (+6% in the past month, vs. CSI-300 down 7%) to sector rotation rather than fundamental recovery. While shareholder returns provide some valuation anchor, continued consensus cuts could leave the stock looking like a value trap, and we do not expect a re-rating soon. We remain UW with a revised PT of RMB51.