FTC Solar Inc (FTCI.US): Turnaround Underway U/G to Buy

We upgrade FTC Solar to Buy and raise our price target to $3.60 on the view that the depressed valuation underestimates the earnings power of the company's product-driven turnaround. Recent U.S. and Australian orders, and the start of shipments for the Fraser Coast project, support our view that FTCI's revamped 1P and First Solar-compatible tracker solutions are gaining acceptance. We forecast 40% revenue growth in 2026 and a 45% revenue CAGR from 2027-30E, driving positive adjusted EBITDA in 2028. By contrast, we believe the current share price implies only ~$5mn of 2028 EBITDA, nearly 50% below our estimate, providing upside potential if execution continues.