Mainland China/HK Property – Top 3 Questions This Week: Policy Expectations / REIT Connect / Land Sales

J.P. Morgan weekly Q&A note on Mainland China/HK property covering the top 3 questions from investors. (1) Whether China will ease policy (e.g. mortgage subsidies) before National Day: mid/end September has historically been a potential policy window, but in the base case no meaningful nationwide stimulus is expected; mortgage subsidies are a possible direction but caps limit the impact (e.g. Rmb50K per unit in Shanghai), and as tier-1 cities already show signs of secondary price stabilization there is no great urgency for a big central stimulus; most investors have low hopes and hedge funds look to sell upon strength. (2) Why Link REIT did not react positively to the REIT Connect news, with a table on southbound eligibility metrics and dividend yields for Hong Kong-listed REITs. (3) The appetite for land plots requiring "completed-home sales": since the "828" policy only four such land sales occurred, 3 sold at 0% land premium and 1 delayed to October;