本报告为美银证券全球股票衍生品研究团队发布的《全球股票波动率洞察》。核心观点认为，AI的潜力与其风险同步上升：若前沿实验室真认为AI强大到构成生存威胁，那它也强大到足以解决人类最重大的难题，因此对美股应在风险管理下保持上行敞口。报告建议买入纳指100（QQQ）看涨期权以风险可控的方式逢低买入，并利用近期看涨波动率回落；针对本周FOMC，倾向通过宏观资产直接对冲，持有TLT伽马（看涨+看跌价差）。欧洲能源方面，美伊紧张推动布伦特重返100美元/桶以上，SXEP逼近历史高位，但下行风险上升——持仓转多、空头减少削弱后续买盘支撑，且年内下跌日波动大于上涨日，建议构建SXEP 10月（空1倍）/12月（多1.5倍）看跌日历价差，以多头偏斜而非直接做多波动率。
AI's potential rises with its risks; hedging FOMC this week. US equities shrugged off last Friday's hot CPI print but flinched pre-market at news of AI labs "pacing the frontier", validating our call that the bar for macro to disrupt AI remains high. Monday's intraday paring of losses and higher upside vs downside SPX vol in recent weeks reveal persistent BTD strength even as Q2's AI euphoria has cooled, while Monday's sharp intra-tech dispersion shows markets are still rotating, not rupturing, amid elevated uncertainty. In our view, if the frontier labs truly believe AI is powerful enough to pose an existential threat, then AI must also be powerful enough to solve some of humanity's largest problems (e.g., Navier Stokes). In other words, AI's potential is rising as fast as its risks, motivating the need for risk-managed upside exposure to US equities. Hence, we like QQQ calls as a risk-limited way to buy dips, leveraging the recent abatement in call vols. For the upcoming FOMC, we fav