本报告为德意志银行金属全流程（dbMetals: The Whole Flow Report）系列研究，本期重点聚焦钯金。报告指出，钯金市场近年持续遭遇CTA趋势跟踪算法的"永久性做空"：波动率控制下的仓位管理使低波动环境催生更大空头头寸，而供应扰动、关税担忧或需求意外等外生冲击会引发空头挤压，价格反弹后周期再度重演。当前算法抛售正在进行，预计本轮再卖出其最大仓位的6%，使贵金属净空头升至历史最大仓位的约三分之一；若价格继续下行，后续几个交易日或再抛售约25%，极端下行不对称性正在化解。过去一年库存体系碎片化、关税威胁抽干全球库存池，但钯金稀缺定价未如白银、铂金般极端。受制裁与自我制裁影响，伦敦库存钯金中或有约25%为俄罗斯品牌，自由流通库存或萎缩达25%，市场稀缺信号被扭曲，正在酝酿逼空式的"大事件"，钯金收益分布左偏但具肥右尾。
Metal in Focus: Palladium. Perpetually short. Over the last years, palladium markets have had to confront a seemingly perpetual CTA short. A pattern has emerged: trend following algorithms accumulate shorts. Algo position sizing is a function of vol-control, such that low-vol environments beget larger positions. An exogenous shock ranging from a supply disruption, to tariff concern or unexpected demand sparks a CTA short squeeze. Prices react accordingly, and eventually set the stage for the cycle to repeat. Supply-demand has been supporting this cycle as scrappage schemes helped to offset headwinds in primary supply, whereas demand was curtailed by substitution and an electrification trend which has been reinforced by rising energy prices. The cycle repeats: CTA selling activity is hitting the tapes. We expect algos to sell an additional -6% of their max size this session, growing their only net short in precious metals towards one-third of their maximum historical position size. Over