友邦保险 (1299.HK): AIA Group: Q326 preview: darkness before dawn

We estimate Q326 VNB at US$1,434 mn, 4% lower YoY on CER basis. AIA is scheduled to release its Q3 results on 30 Oct. We forecast value of new business (VNB) declined by 4%/3% on CER/AER basis in Q3 (vs H1: +10%/13%), mainly due to YoY decrease in HK/China/Thailand against a high base, while other segments (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Other Markets) collectively delivered double-digit growth. In Q4, we anticipate a solid YoY rebound as base effect dissipates, forecasting 10% VNB growth in 2026 on CER basis. In H226E, we estimate 2% HoH embedded value growth. In 2026E, we forecast 17% operating RoEV. We revise our EV-based PT to HK$100 from HK$102, reflecting lower 2026E VNB growth and MTM macro conditions. We believe the current valuation implies attractive risk/reward: 1.04x P/EV, 17% operating RoEV and 10.7x P/OPAT with 14% OPAT/share CAGR (2025-2030E). Buy rating maintained.