摩根大通点评贵州茅台2026年三季度业绩：营收同比增长3%至400亿元，净利润增长4%，符合预期，显著优于其他上市白酒企业（三季度利润仍下滑约50%）。增长主要来自i茅台直销放量、系列酒回升以及提价和渠道管控，净利率稳定在49.5%。全年市场一致预期有望实现，上调2026-2028年盈利预测1%，预计2026年营收和净利润分别增长1.9%和0.4%。当前估值对应20倍2027年市盈率，相对中国必需消费板块16倍仍有溢价，3.6%的股息率支撑有限。目标价由1400元上调至1410元，维持中性评级。
Moutai’s 3Q26 results were in-line with a good-quality print - gross revenue grew 3% and net profit +4%. This puts Moutai into a different league against the other listed baijiu peers, who collectively were still trapped in deep earnings decline (-50% in 3Q, vs -54% in 2Q). We attribute that resilience to Moutai’s brand strength and strong channel control. Full year consensus earnings estimates look achievable, driven by two Feitian ex-factory price hikes (in Mar and July), stabilized vintage sell-through, a recovery in MT1935 sales, and a well-protected margin. As a result, we are edging up our FY26-28E earnings forecast by 1%. The constraint is valuation, not fundamentals. At 20x 2027E P/E - versus 16x for China staples and 12x for discretionary - Moutai still commands a premium, while its 3.6% dividend yield offers only modest support. Raise PT to RMB1,410 from RMB1,400; stay Neutral.