The Drug Developers: AZN & Summit collaboration is much ado about nothing in NSCLC - we project negative overall survival for AVANZAR

The third note in our series "The Drug Developers: Bringing the Bench to the Buy Side" highlights our significant skepticism of an FDA-approved treatment regimen with Datroway and Ivonescimab in NSCLC. Our base case is a positive HARMONi-3 for Ivonescimab in squamous NSCLC given the encouraging results of China-only HARMONi-6; however, clinical development of the combination regimen is not possible in squamous NSCLC because Datroway lacks efficacy in this histology, so the ongoing AVANZAR Ph3 trial is limited to non-squamous patients. We reiterate our low expectations for Ivonescimab to read out positive in HARMONi-3's non-squamous cohort and focus on the last remaining piece: Datroway's AVANZAR trial. We highlight our low probability of technical success (PTS) for AVANZAR's overall survival analysis in both the non-squamous ITT (~20%) and QCS+ population (~30%) with a ~November/December 2026 topline. We hypothesize that AVANZAR's delay is not due to Datroway over-performance but to ev