摩根大通亚洲科技追踪报告指出,亚洲科技股已回落至2026年7月的水平,这也是2022年以来本轮行情中第四次超过20%的回调。在汇总与投资者进行的200多场交流所获得的反馈后,报告认为,AI基础设施交易在未来3至6个月仍偏向上行:单位经济性、AI扩展定律与token需求增长等基本面驱动因素依然强劲;估值已修正到隐含盈利下修的水平,但下修大概率不会发生;库存累积、交期缩短、产能快速扩张等典型的周期见顶信号基本缺席。个股方面,法拉电子(Faratronic)三季度业绩符合预期,数据中心需求增长构成利好,但下游需求疲软以及新能源汽车板块严重的价格与利润率压力持续拖累盈利,因此维持中性评级,并将2027年6月目标价维持在130元不变。日本方面,8月电子元件出货同比开始转增,电容与连接器延续增长;9月近线硬盘产量同比增长14%,企业级SSD产能同比增长113%。AMD、超微电脑与Arista三季度业绩均超预期,并上调2027年展望。
J.P. Morgan's Asia Technology Tracker (5 November 2026) notes Asian tech stocks have returned to July 2026 levels, marking the fourth 20%+ correction in the rally since 2022. Drawing on feedback from more than 200 investor meetings, the team stays optimistic on the AI infrastructure trade over the next 3-6 months: unit economics, AI scaling laws and token demand growth remain strong; valuations have already corrected to levels that signal imminent EPS cuts, which the team views as unlikely; and classic cycle-peak signals such as inventory builds, shortening lead times and rapid capacity ramp-up are largely absent. Faratronic's 3Q26 results were in line, with datacenter demand a growth driver, though soft downstream demand and severe NEV price and margin pressure persist; the team maintains Neutral and an unchanged Jun-27 price target of Rmb130. Japan's August electronic component shipments started rising YoY, led by capacitors and connectors, while September nearline HDD output rose 14