US Retail Price Monitor: Pricing returns; Walmart holds its lead (largely)

Amid ongoing macro uncertainties, we update our consumables price tracker to monitor retailers' pricing actions and price gaps in real time. At the macro level, headline inflation ticked up again in September to 3.7%, given continued gas inflation. Food inflation has moderated somewhat, led by food-at-home categories. Despite retailers' price investments, ongoing inflation is driving a new round of price increases. Since July, prices in our representative basket of CPG products increased by +0.6% overall, led by a +2.1% increase in the drug channel, while prices were largely flat in convenience and declined by -1.7% in the food channel. The mass/club channel remains the most price competitive. At the retailer level, mass/club retailers have started to take pricing more so than dollar stores, but Walmart largely maintains its price leadership. Target is on average 5% more expensive per item compared to Walmart across 31 identical SKUs. Dollar General is on average 5% more expensive per